Trump looms large as Congress faces shutdown threat and ‘dizzying’ to-do list

As Congress reconvenes for the final stretch of the year, the looming threat of a government shutdown and a long list of unfinished legislative business hang over Capitol Hill. While President-elect Donald Trump will not return to the White House until January, his influence is already shaping the direction of Congress’s actions during the lame-duck session.

With only weeks remaining before the December 20 funding deadline, Congress faces an urgent need to pass government spending bills to avoid a shutdown. The uncertainty surrounding how House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republican leaders will approach this funding fight reflects the larger political dynamics in play. Trump’s team has yet to communicate a clear strategy to GOP leaders on how to proceed with spending issues, creating a level of ambiguity about the path forward.

Many Republicans want to delay any major spending decisions until Trump takes office in 2025. However, this could lead to a chaotic fight in Congress that risks consuming valuable time early in Trump’s second term, complicating other legislative priorities. On the other hand, some Republicans are pushing to avoid such a scenario and clear the decks before the new year. GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who will leave the House to become North Dakota’s governor, expressed concerns about pushing the funding debate into 2025. He warned that it could divide Republicans and unite Democrats, making it harder to pass a budget that both sides can support.

“The amount of work that Congress has to do in the first six months of 2025 is dizzying,” said GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson, noting the challenging legislative landscape ahead. With critical work such as confirming Trump’s cabinet nominees and passing a sweeping economic and tax package, Congress cannot afford prolonged gridlock.

Aside from the spending fight, Congress faces a packed agenda as the year winds down. The annual defense policy bill must be completed, with lawmakers on both sides eager to pass it before the end of the year. However, the contentious farm bill, which dictates U.S. agricultural and food policy, will likely be delayed until 2025, possibly through a short-term extension. Additionally, lawmakers will need to address disaster relief for communities hit by hurricanes earlier in the fall.

Trump’s Influence in Senate GOP Leadership Race

Trump’s impact on Congress is also being felt in the Senate, where Republicans are selecting a new leader to replace Mitch McConnell. Trump’s backing is seen as a key factor in this race, especially as the president-elect calls for Republican leaders to use recess appointments, a tactic that bypasses Congress to fill administration positions when lawmakers are not in session.

Senators vying for the position of Senate GOP leader, including John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and Rick Scott of Florida, have all signaled their willingness to use whatever tactics necessary to support Trump’s priorities, including recess appointments. This has become a major point of contention as Republicans vie for Trump’s favor.

While the leadership race remains unpredictable, Scott, who had been considered a long shot, has gained momentum due to his strong conservative support, including endorsements from key figures like Florida’s Marco Rubio and Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville. Trump’s influence in the race remains a wild card, and GOP senators are likely hedging their bets, aware of the potential backlash from Trump if they do not align with his preferences.

Democrats’ Struggles and Key Legislation Ahead

For Democrats, the lame-duck session is a last opportunity to push through key priorities before losing control of the Senate in January. Democratic leaders, particularly in the House, have not yet decided how to approach the upcoming spending fight, as the Republican-led House has yet to finalize its position. With only a few weeks left before the shutdown deadline, both parties face the challenge of passing legislation in a divided Congress.

One major piece of legislation that Congress cannot afford to delay is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a must-pass bill that outlines defense policy for the Pentagon and authorizes military spending. The NDAA’s passage has been a bipartisan priority for more than six decades, and lawmakers will need to reconcile differences between the House and Senate versions to ensure it passes before the year’s end.

Another critical deadline is the farm bill, which governs U.S. agriculture policy. While the full bill is unlikely to pass this year, a short-term extension may be required to keep key programs funded through 2025. The expiration of key provisions at the end of December means Congress must act quickly to prevent disruptions in agricultural programs.

The Race Against the Clock

With only a handful of legislative days before the Thanksgiving break and less than three weeks before the shutdown deadline in December, Congress has a jam-packed agenda. Lawmakers must balance the urgency of these issues with the political realities of a divided government, all while facing pressure from both their parties and the incoming Trump administration.

As Trump’s influence continues to grow in Congress, lawmakers are left to navigate a difficult political landscape where strategic decisions made in the coming weeks will shape the early months of Trump’s second term—and could have lasting effects on the GOP’s agenda and the nation’s legislative priorities.