As Trump vows mass deportation, polls suggest growing support – but not a mandate

Support for deporting undocumented immigrants has increased since Donald Trump left office, with a growing trend in nativist sentiments across the U.S. However, the level of support for mass deportation varies depending on how the question is framed, indicating that public opinion on the issue may have limits. Trump’s 2024 campaign has made mass deportation a key promise, and his allies are already strategizing ways to make it a reality. Immigration advocates, on the other hand, are preparing for potential sweeping actions.

Recent polling from CNN’s national exit survey highlights that immigration remains a strong issue for Trump. While voters trust him over Vice President Kamala Harris on immigration by a 9-point margin, the poll does not indicate a clear mandate for mass deportation. Voters were asked whether most undocumented immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, and a majority of 56% said yes, compared to 40% who favored deportation. Among Trump voters, 25% supported a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, while just 9% of Harris supporters backed deportation. Notably, nearly 40% of Hispanic voters who supported Trump expressed favor for allowing a pathway to citizenship.

This mixed sentiment is further complicated by recent polling, which shows a range of responses when different aspects of immigration policy are presented. For instance, a June Gallup poll found that 47% of Americans supported deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, while an October Marquette Law School poll showed 58% of registered voters backed deportation. However, when the Marquette poll asked respondents whether they would support deportation even for immigrants who had lived in the U.S. for years, held jobs, and had no criminal record, support dropped to 40%, with 60% opposed to such a policy.

A separate Gallup survey also found that 70% of Americans favored giving undocumented immigrants a chance to become U.S. citizens if they met certain criteria over time, and an even higher 81% supported a pathway to citizenship for those brought to the U.S. as children. Similarly, a June CBS News/YouGov poll revealed that while 62% of registered voters favored starting a national deportation program, a slim majority opposed holding immigrants in detention centers to carry out the plan.

In polls that offer respondents a choice between deportation and a pathway to citizenship, the latter often garners more support. CNN’s pre-election survey this year showed that two-thirds of registered voters believed the government’s top priority should be creating a plan to allow some undocumented immigrants to become legal residents. A summer Pew Research Center poll found that 59% of registered voters favored a system allowing undocumented immigrants who meet specific requirements to stay in the country, while only 37% opposed such a policy. Just one-third of respondents supported a national law enforcement effort to deport all immigrants living illegally in the U.S.

Despite the varied responses, national polls indicate a broader trend of rising support for deportation policies over recent years, along with an increase in nativist attitudes. CNN’s October poll showed a 20-point rise in support for deportation among registered voters compared to 2017. Other polling earlier in the fall found a 22-point increase since 2019 in the share of voters who believed that having a growing number of people from different races, ethnicities, and nationalities in the U.S. was more of a threat than an enrichment to society.

Gallup’s June 2024 data showed a 15-point rise since 2016 in support for deporting all immigrants living illegally in the U.S. Additionally, the share of Americans advocating for reduced immigration levels increased by 17 points over the same period.

Political scientist Michael Tesler has noted that these shifts align with the “thermostatic model” of public opinion, where public attitudes toward policy tend to move away from the current administration’s stance. This model suggests that, under President Trump, the public’s opinions shifted to the right, while under President Biden, they have moved left. If Trump returns to office, these views may shift again, potentially influencing immigration policy in the future.

In conclusion, while there is growing support for deportation and a rise in nativist sentiment, the overall picture remains complex. Public opinion on immigration is fluid, with significant variation based on how the issue is framed. Trump’s promise of mass deportation, while resonating with some, may face limitations as the broader public continues to support pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.