The Kansas City Chiefs are the luckiest good team ever

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the most successful teams in the NFL this season, but as a Buffalo Bills fan, I can’t help but feel like they’re the luckiest team ever. It seems like they consistently find ways to win, even when it looks like the game is slipping away from them. They’ve secured victories this season with an improbable last-second field goal block and another with a field goal that hit the upright and somehow went in. With a 12-1 record through 13 games, it feels like everything is going the Chiefs’ way.

However, after taking a closer look, I’ve come to realize that the Chiefs are actually the luckiest 11+ win team in NFL history. Statistically speaking, they’re the least impressive team in terms of point differential (the difference between points scored and points allowed) among all teams with 11 or more wins through the first 13 games in the Super Bowl era. That might mean they’re less likely to win the Super Bowl, but unfortunately, the history of NFL teams like them suggests their luck might continue.

Let’s break down the math. The Chiefs have outscored their opponents by just 56 points this season. That’s only about 4 points per game. To put that into perspective, the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) have outscored their opponents by 99 points, and the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) have a margin of 108 points. The Detroit Lions, with a 12-1 record, have outscored their opponents by 183 points—more than three times the margin of the Chiefs.

Looking at recent games, the Chiefs’ victories have been extremely close. In their last five games, they’ve won four by two points (against the Denver Broncos), three points (against the Carolina Panthers), two points (against the Las Vegas Raiders), and two points (against the LA Chargers). Their only loss came by nine points to the Buffalo Bills. Despite these close results, the Chiefs have somehow managed to go 4-1 in these games, without a significant point differential advantage.

Now, you might expect me to say that the Chiefs’ luck is bound to run out soon. As a Bills fan, I certainly hope that’s the case. But while their chances of winning the Super Bowl might be lower based on these statistics, their good fortune might not end as quickly as I would like.

Here’s why: historical data shows that point differential is a strong indicator of Super Bowl success, but it’s not a guarantee. Among teams that had a top 25 point differential in the Super Bowl era, 36% won the Super Bowl. Among the bottom 25 teams in point differential, just 12% won the big game. While the Chiefs’ point differential is poor, it’s still possible for them to pull off a Super Bowl win.

Take the 2003 New England Patriots as an example. They had the second-worst point differential among teams with at least 11 wins in their first 13 games, outscoring opponents by just 60 points (around five points per game). Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl, with their playoff run being similarly close. On the other hand, the 2007 Patriots, who had an incredible point differential of 281 points (22 points per game), lost the Super Bowl despite their dominance throughout the regular season.

Looking at the Chiefs, they’ve faced a relatively weak schedule this year. The average opponent they’ve played has won only 46% of their games, while the average NFL team has won 50%. However, when comparing the strength of schedule across Super Bowl winners and non-winners, it turns out that playing against weaker teams doesn’t drastically affect a team’s chances to win the Super Bowl once they have 11+ wins.

This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. The Chiefs weren’t particularly dominant last year either, yet they made it to the postseason and managed to win the Super Bowl despite having a worse point differential than every team they defeated. Luck can carry a team through the playoffs, and it’s something the Chiefs have experienced for several years now.

At the end of the day, the Chiefs’ luck may very well run out. Statistically, they should have a harder time maintaining their success without a more substantial point differential. But given the unpredictable nature of sports, especially with a team that’s been able to pull off close wins repeatedly, it’s hard to feel confident that their luck will fade any time soon. So while I’m hoping for a different outcome, I can’t say with certainty that the Chiefs’ luck won’t continue all the way to the Super Bowl.

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