Blinken Focuses on Egypt Amidst Stalled Gaza Ceasefire Efforts

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Egypt on Wednesday, omitting a stop in Israel from his itinerary for the first time since the October 7 attacks. This decision underscores growing concerns about the feasibility of securing a ceasefire and a hostage deal before President Joe Biden’s term ends.

Blinken’s visits to the Middle East typically include discussions with Israeli officials regarding the conflict and negotiations, particularly focusing on issues such as a ceasefire and the release of hostages. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has frequently dismissed the administration’s proposals in the aftermath of these meetings.

During Blinken’s last visit in August, there was public optimism about nearing a resolution. Yet, that optimism has faded, and progress towards an agreement now seems uncertain.

The State Department announced that Blinken’s trip will involve meetings with Egyptian officials to discuss efforts for a Gaza ceasefire that would ensure the release of hostages, mitigate the suffering of Palestinians, and enhance regional security. Additionally, Blinken will co-chair the U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. This dialogue aims to strengthen bilateral relations, boost economic development, and foster cultural and educational exchanges.

Egypt plays a crucial role in the negotiations, but there is skepticism about whether Blinken’s visit will lead to a significant breakthrough. The potential for a resolution appears to hinge largely on the political will of two key figures: Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Current indications suggest neither party is inclined to reach a deal.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield emphasized on Monday that reaching an agreement depends primarily on political will. “We continue to work with Egypt and Qatar to find a way forward in the negotiations that will be acceptable to both parties. But as hard as we are going to work on texts and creative formulas, this is ultimately a question of political will,” she said.

While Blinken is engaged in talks in Egypt, the families of American hostages held by Hamas are visiting Washington, DC, advocating for their release. However, a clear timetable for the next steps in the negotiations remains elusive. Although US officials had previously suggested that a proposal was nearing completion, it has yet to be presented to both sides.

CIA Director Bill Burns indicated on September 7 that a detailed proposal would be offered soon, but the exact timing remains uncertain. The US has accused Hamas of introducing “new demands” following the murder of six hostages, though these demands have not been publicly detailed. Netanyahu is also alleged to have added new conditions to the negotiations.

During his last visit to Israel, Blinken stated that Netanyahu had agreed to a “bridging proposal” designed to address remaining gaps with Hamas. However, Netanyahu later reportedly informed hostage families that Israel would not relinquish control of the Philadelphi corridor—a key component of the deal. This statement was criticized by a senior administration official as “maximalist” and counterproductive to reaching a ceasefire.

Following the execution of six hostages by Hamas, Netanyahu declared that no deal was forthcoming. Despite this, US officials have been cautious in their public criticism of Netanyahu’s stance.

Blinken has stressed that both Israel and Hamas need to agree on the remaining issues related to a ceasefire and hostage deal. Recent developments include Sinwar’s rare letter to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, reaffirming his commitment to fighting Israel. Netanyahu’s recent comments denying the progress of a deal have been seen as a major setback to the Biden administration’s efforts.

A senior Biden administration official indicated earlier this month that the first phase of the agreement was largely settled, with remaining issues concerning Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

Blinken noted last week that only a few challenging issues remain, but he remains hopeful that these can be resolved soon. However, his previous statements reflect persistent challenges in finalizing the agreement.

As of now, President Biden’s national security advisers do not have imminent plans to present an updated proposal, suggesting that talks have stalled significantly. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged that while efforts continue, it remains uncertain whether a deal will be achieved.