Growing Tensions: Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea Forge New Alliances Against Ethiopia

Leaders from Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, nations with strained relations with Ethiopia, convened recently in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital. The summit culminated in a statement emphasizing “respect for the sovereignty… and territorial integrity of the countries in the region,” a remark interpreted as a subtle jab at Ethiopia’s aspirations for maritime access, despite Ethiopia not being explicitly named.

Recent diplomatic tensions have nudged Somalia closer to both Egypt and Eritrea, nations that have longstanding disputes with Ethiopia. Observers worry that this developing alliance could escalate into broader conflict. “This is an axis against Addis Ababa,” stated Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, during an interview with the BBC’s Focus on Africa. He further characterized the coalition as an effort to unify against Ethiopia, seeking to increase pressure on its capital.

Contrarily, Somalia’s Information Minister Daud Aweis dismissed such assertions, stating that the summit aimed to foster cooperation among the three countries. “We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa,” Aweis claimed. He acknowledged the historical ties between Somalia and Ethiopia but suggested that Ethiopia’s current leadership had contributed to regional instability. Still, he affirmed that Somalia stands for peace and insisted that the Asmara meeting was not aimed at Ethiopia.

Following the summit, a photograph released by Eritrea depicted President Isaias Afwerki alongside Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, symbolizing their newfound collaboration. The leaders discussed strengthening Somali state institutions to tackle various internal and external challenges and enhancing the Somali National Federal Army’s capacity to combat terrorism.

This summit marked Sisi’s inaugural visit to Asmara, while President Mohamud had visited three times earlier this year. Historically, Ethiopia has been a critical supporter of Somalia in its battle against al-Qaeda-affiliated group al-Shabab. However, Somalia has expressed outrage over Ethiopia’s recent preliminary agreement with the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland to lease a portion of its coastline, which Somalia claims as its own.

The rift extends beyond Somalia, as Ethiopia and Egypt have been embroiled in a contentious dispute for over a decade regarding the construction of a significant hydroelectric dam on the Nile River. Egypt perceives this project as a potential threat to its water supply, on which it heavily relies.

In a notable military development, an Egyptian ship recently delivered a substantial consignment of military equipment to Somalia. This followed two Egyptian military planes landing in Mogadishu in August, reportedly carrying arms and ammunition. These actions signal an increasingly military-focused relationship between Egypt and Somalia, further alarming Ethiopia.

In 2018, hopes for improved relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea emerged when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a “declaration of peace and friendship” with Eritrea, an agreement that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize the following year. However, relations soured again following the conclusion of a two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which shares a border with Eritrea. While Asmara initially supported the Ethiopian government during the conflict, it has since shown reluctance towards the peace accord established in November 2022.

The tensions have intensified with Abiy’s declaration last year that Ethiopia aimed to secure access to a port on the Red Sea. Such aspirations are viewed as a direct challenge to both Eritrea and Somalia, heightening fears of a more complex geopolitical conflict in the Horn of Africa.

As the alliances between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea solidify, the implications for Ethiopia and regional stability remain uncertain. The dynamics in this part of Africa continue to evolve, with the potential for both cooperation and conflict looming large in the backdrop.