Clashes erupt between Somalia’s federal troops and regional forces over a disputed local election
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ecurity forces survey the debris at the site of a suicide car bomb attack in Mogadishu, Somalia, on July 13, 2020.
Clashes erupted on Wednesday morning in the southern Somali town of Raskamboni between Somalia’s federal government forces and regional troops from Jubbaland, intensifying tensions over a contested regional election. The fighting, which lasted for several hours, eventually subsided by midday, according to officials from both sides. However, the violence highlights ongoing instability in the Horn of Africa, which has long been plagued by deadly attacks from Islamic extremist groups like al-Shabab. The details of the confrontation, including the number of casualties, remain unclear due to a telecommunications blackout in the region.
This latest conflict underscores the growing rift between Somalia’s central government and the administration of Jubbaland, a semi-autonomous region in the southern part of the country, raising concerns over the potential for more instability in the strategically significant region near Somalia’s border with Kenya.
The federal government of Somalia has been engaged in an ongoing effort to take over operations against the al-Shabab militant group, which is linked to al-Qaeda. Somalia is preparing to assume full responsibility for the fight against the group from the African Union peacekeeping mission (AMISOM), which has been in place since 2007 and is set to conclude at the end of this month. The federal forces are preparing to secure key positions that will play an essential role in combating al-Shabab. However, the Jubbaland administration, led by President Ahmed Madobe, was accused by the federal government of launching an attack on federal positions on Wednesday, claiming that these positions were vital in the effort to counter al-Shabab.
The tension between the federal government and Jubbaland stems from a contested presidential election held on November 25, 2023, in which Ahmed Madobe was re-elected for a third term. The federal government has insisted that Madobe’s third term violates constitutional term limits, which stipulate that a president can only serve two terms. Opposition groups in Jubbaland have rejected the results of the election, claiming the process was flawed and subsequently forming a parallel government in the region. This political division has fueled the broader conflict, with federal forces viewing the Jubbaland leadership as a challenge to their authority.
Jubbaland officials, on the other hand, accused the Somali federal government of initiating the violence by targeting Jubbaland positions. Adan Ahmed Haji, the deputy security minister for Jubbaland, condemned the federal forces’ actions, claiming that they were part of a wider strategy to undermine the regional government’s legitimacy. Speaking at a press conference in the port city of Kismayo, he remarked, “It is unfortunate to see armies and vehicles meant to defend the country being used against its own people.”
The Somali federal defense ministry has also alleged that Madobe coordinated with al-Shabab militants, claiming that Jubbaland forces were allowed to operate in areas under the control of the extremist group. These accusations are part of a broader effort by the federal government to isolate regional actors like Madobe, accusing them of undermining national efforts to stabilize the country and fight terrorism.
The situation in Jubbaland remains volatile, and the conflict reflects broader tensions between regional and federal authorities in Somalia. The region’s proximity to the Kenyan border makes it strategically important, both in terms of security and trade. This latest violence, which has raised fears of further instability, could have significant implications for Somalia’s ongoing security and governance challenges.
Looking ahead, a new African Union mission is set to begin in January 2024. The mission will include troops from various African countries but will exclude Ethiopia, with which Somalia has a longstanding dispute over the breakaway region of Somaliland. The outcome of the political and military conflict in Jubbaland will be closely watched as Somalia navigates these complex issues amid its ongoing struggle to assert control over its territory and combat extremism.
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