Era of cheap Russian gas to EU ends as transit across Ukraine stops
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The era of cheap Russian gas flowing to the European Union (EU) came to a halt on January 1, as transit via Ukraine ceased following the expiration of a five-year gas deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky labeled the event “historic,” emphasizing that Ukraine would no longer allow Russia to profit from their energy supplies amid ongoing conflict. The Polish government hailed the end of the agreement as another victory in their efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
The European Commission assured that most EU states had prepared for the change and would manage the transition without major disruptions, though neighboring Moldova, which isn’t an EU member, is already grappling with shortages. While Russia can still export gas to some countries, including Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia, via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea, the cessation of transit through Ukraine marks a major shift in energy dynamics for Europe.
Russia has supplied gas to Europe via Ukraine since 1991, but the termination of this deal signals a symbolic and strategic turning point. Despite the EU’s significant reduction in Russian gas imports since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several Eastern European member states still rely heavily on these supplies. The EU imported less than 10% of its gas from Russia in 2023, down from 40% in 2021. Nonetheless, countries like Slovakia and Austria continue to depend on Russian gas, with the former now emerging as a primary transit point for gas to the EU.
Austria’s energy regulator reassured citizens that it expected no immediate disruptions, having diversified energy sources and built up reserves. However, Slovakia, which earns transit fees for gas passing through to Austria, Hungary, and Italy, faces challenges. The country has warned of higher gas prices in 2025 due to the cut-off. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that the cessation of gas transit would have severe consequences for the EU but would not significantly impact Russia. Fico, who recently visited Moscow for talks with Putin, has also threatened to halt electricity exports to Ukraine, a move that President Zelensky condemned as an attempt to weaken Ukraine and aid Putin’s war efforts.
Poland has offered support to Ukraine in case of such an interruption, citing alternative gas supply routes through Croatia and connections from Germany and Poland. Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski emphasized the importance of these alternatives to prevent Russia from profiting from European gas purchases. Poland itself imports gas from the U.S., Qatar, and the North Sea.
Moldova, which generates a significant portion of its electricity using Russian gas, faces a growing energy crisis. The Moldovan government has relied on gas from Russia for power generation, and the region’s breakaway territory, Transnistria, is especially vulnerable. The Russia-backed separatist region, which houses around 300,000 people, is entirely dependent on Russian energy supplies. The Moldovan government condemned Russia for using energy as a political weapon, after Gazprom announced on December 28 that it would cut gas supplies to Moldova due to alleged unpaid debts.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean denied these claims, asserting that Moldova had paid its debts and accusing Russia of attempting to destabilize the country. The energy company Tirasteploenergo confirmed that Transnistria’s heat and hot water were cut off on January 1 due to the gas supply cessation. The company urged residents to conserve energy, gather family in one room, and use electric heaters as the temperature dropped below freezing. Medical facilities and hospitals continued to receive energy, but the general population faces significant challenges.
In response to the worsening energy situation, Moldova implemented a state of emergency in its energy sector in mid-December, and authorities have called on citizens to reduce consumption. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused the Kremlin of trying to destabilize the country ahead of the 2025 general elections. The Moldovan government has also offered aid to Transnistria, though the separatist region has rejected assistance.
In the broader EU context, alternative energy sources such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the U.S., along with gas imports from Norway, have helped Europe reduce its reliance on Russian energy. The European Commission has already devised a plan to completely replace gas transiting through Ukraine with supplies from alternative sources. Despite the EU’s growing energy independence, the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine represents a crucial moment in the geopolitical struggle over energy and the future of European energy security.
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