Europe’s leaders face up to Trump victory at Hungarian summit

The re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has cast a long shadow over Europe, as leaders gathered in Budapest to discuss the future of the continent in light of this political shift. Trump’s first term soured relations between Europe and the United States, with the former president criticizing European nations for not contributing more to their own security and taking aim at the trade deficit between the U.S. and Europe. Germany, in particular, became a frequent target of Trump’s ire, as former Chancellor Angela Merkel can attest.

Now, as Trump prepares for a second term, European leaders are bracing for the potential impact on the continent, especially with regard to ongoing issues like the war in Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky attended a meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, a forum initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The summit’s purpose was to foster dialogue among European leaders on shared challenges, but the specter of Trump’s re-election loomed large.

One of the biggest concerns is the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, which has been the largest single source of support for Kyiv in its fight against Russia. Trump has previously suggested he could end the war in Ukraine in a day, though it remains unclear whether he supports Ukraine’s victory or seeks a negotiated settlement with Russia. The fear is that under a Trump administration, U.S. aid could be reduced or withdrawn, leaving Europe to shoulder a greater burden.

While European leaders like UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have pledged continued support for Ukraine, the future of U.S. assistance is uncertain. Zelensky, who is in Budapest to appeal for solidarity, will likely press European leaders to remain committed to their promises of support.

Beyond the issue of military aid, Ukraine faces additional challenges as Europe’s political landscape shifts. Germany, Ukraine’s second-largest donor after the U.S., has been rocked by a political crisis following the collapse of its governing coalition. This upheaval adds to the uncertainty facing Kyiv, as the stability of key European allies hangs in the balance.

The summit in Budapest is hosted by Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a staunch admirer of Trump and a leader known for his pro-Russia stance. Orbán has been critical of EU sanctions on Russia and has called for an immediate ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and Russia—positions that align more closely with Trump’s isolationist tendencies. Orbán’s comments about Trump being part of a “pro-peace” camp reflect a broader political divide within Europe, as many leaders continue to back Ukraine while others, like Orbán, seek a more conciliatory approach to Russia.

Despite these divisions, Zelensky and other European leaders are hoping to maintain cordial relations with the incoming Trump administration. The warm, albeit cautious, congratulations from European leaders on social media underscore a desire to keep diplomatic channels open. However, there’s a clear undercurrent of tension, as many of these leaders favored Trump’s rival, Kamala Harris, in the 2020 election.

While EU officials maintain that they are better prepared for a second Trump presidency than they were in 2016, his brand of isolationism still causes concern. Europe has relied on the U.S. for security since World War II, and Trump’s skepticism about NATO and his protectionist trade policies threaten to disrupt this longstanding relationship. As the U.S. is Europe’s largest trade partner, Trump’s penchant for tariffs could harm export-dependent economies like Germany, which is already grappling with sluggish growth and a struggling automobile industry. While the European Commission has indicated it could respond with retaliatory measures, it would prefer to avoid a trade war with the U.S.

Trump’s “America First” approach is also raising concerns about the EU’s unity. Leaders like Orbán, as well as Slovakia’s Prime Minister and Italy’s Premier, have expressed admiration for Trump’s nationalist policies, which could potentially create divisions within the EU. Brussels fears that some member states might seek to curry favor with Trump at the expense of European solidarity, weakening the bloc’s collective strength.

Yet, there is also a belief in Brussels that Trump’s second term could have an unexpected effect: uniting the EU. As one EU diplomat put it, the European Union came together more strongly during the Brexit process than many had expected. In a similar vein, Trump’s policies might push European countries to become more self-reliant and forge stronger internal ties.

Before the U.S. election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested that Europe’s future no longer depended on U.S. elections but on Europe’s own decisions. While this view is shared by some, others worry that Trump’s re-election could fuel the rise of right-wing populist movements in Europe, mirroring the divisive rhetoric and policies that have gained traction in many countries.

As European leaders adjust to the reality of a second Trump presidency, the continent’s political future remains uncertain. The potential for growing divisions, both within the EU and between Europe and the U.S., poses serious challenges. Yet, Europe may also find that its response to these challenges will define its path forward—whether it chooses greater unity or a more fragmented approach.