Georgian vote result makes no statistical sense – Western pollsters

The recent elections in Georgia have sparked significant controversy, with US pollsters HarrisX and Edison Research questioning the validity of the official results. Commissioned to conduct exit polls for opposition media, these organizations reported findings that suggest widespread electoral manipulation during the voting process.

Election monitors reported numerous irregularities during the elections held last Saturday, amplifying concerns about the integrity of the vote. The assessments from HarrisX and Edison Research lend credence to the opposition’s claims, including those from Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, who described the election as “rigged” and “stolen.”

In stark contrast, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party maintains that the elections were conducted fairly, albeit acknowledging some irregularities at a few polling stations. However, Edison Research noted a significant discrepancy: their exit poll estimated GD’s support at around 41%, while official results gave the party a commanding 54% majority. This 13-point gap exceeds normal statistical variations, indicating potential “local-level manipulation of the vote,” according to the research firm.

HarrisX corroborated these findings, identifying an 8% discrepancy in the reported votes, which further points to possible electoral fraud. The election commission, responsible for certifying the official results, has dismissed these assessments as “unfounded attacks.”

Opposition leaders framed this election as a critical juncture between aligning with Europe or returning to the influence of Russia. President Zourabichvili has accused the government of orchestrating a “Russian special operation” to undermine democratic processes. The calls for transparency have been echoed by the EU, US, and NATO, who are demanding thorough investigations into the reported irregularities.

Both HarrisX and Edison Research’s exit polls indicated a significant lead for opposition parties, estimating their support to be substantially higher than what was reported for GD. HarrisX conducted a survey involving 12,000 voters and reported “statistically unexplainable discrepancies” across at least 27 districts in Georgia. They also noted unusual vote shifts compared to the previous election in 2020.

In Marneuli, a town that the GD party admitted experienced electoral violations, two individuals, including the deputy council leader, were arrested on charges of ballot-stuffing. HarrisX reported a dramatic difference in the results from this town; while the official count claimed GD received 80% of the vote, their exit poll indicated only 40% support for the ruling party.

Edison Research observed that the most significant deviations from expected results were found in rural areas, suggesting a pattern of vote manipulation at the local polling stations. This has led to heightened tensions, with major opposition groups organizing further protests, building on the momentum of a recent demonstration that drew tens of thousands to the streets of Tbilisi.

Georgian election observers reported numerous violations, including vote-buying and the confiscation of voters’ IDs prior to the election. In response to allegations of fraud and biased electoral practices, the election commission has refuted claims of carousel voting in the country’s newly implemented electronic voting system, insisting that multiple voting is impossible.

This week, public prosecutors summoned President Zourabichvili for questioning, seeking evidence to support her fraud allegations. However, she asserted that it is the responsibility of the authorities to investigate such claims.

The situation remains tense in Georgia as the opposition prepares to challenge the legitimacy of the election results. With international bodies calling for accountability, the coming days will be crucial in determining how the political landscape in Georgia will unfold in the wake of these controversial elections. The insistence on transparency and integrity in the electoral process remains at the forefront of the public discourse, as citizens demand answers and accountability from their leaders.