Georgia’s pro-EU opposition says vote stolen as ruling party claims victory

Pro-Western opposition parties in Georgia are rejecting the recent election results, which favored the ruling party led by billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. The election was a critical juncture for the nation as it navigates its future alignment with Europe versus Russia.

The ruling Georgian Dream party announced a significant victory, claiming 54% of the vote with over 99% of districts reporting. However, this result starkly contrasted with exit polls conducted by Western organizations, which indicated a tighter race.

Opposition leaders, including Tina Bokuchava of the United National Movement, decried the elections as fraudulent, asserting that the vote was “stolen from the Georgian people.” Another opposition figure, Nika Gvaramia, accused Georgian Dream of orchestrating a “constitutional coup.” Analysts echoed these sentiments, questioning the credibility of the party’s increased vote share compared to previous elections.

Before the election, both Georgian Dream and the four pro-EU opposition parties claimed victory based on conflicting exit polls. On election day, voter turnout was robust, but reports of voting irregularities and violence outside polling stations emerged. An opposition official described being assaulted by a local Georgian Dream councillor and a group of assailants, highlighting the tense atmosphere.

A coalition of 2,000 election observers, My Vote, expressed skepticism about the preliminary results, citing widespread reports of vote fraud and violence. The opposition framed this election as a pivotal decision between aligning with Europe or falling back into Russia’s influence, reminiscent of the significance of Georgia’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Initial exit polls conducted by Edison and HarrisX indicated Georgian Dream securing around 40-42% of the vote, while the combined opposition was projected to garner 48-52%. In contrast, government-aligned Imedi TV reported a higher figure of 56% for Georgian Dream.

The Central Election Commission (CEC) had promised timely results, indicating that 90% of the votes would be reported shortly after polls closed. However, the preliminary results were only nearly complete the following morning, raising concerns about transparency. Critics have accused the CEC of being too closely aligned with the government, and former Georgian ambassador to the EU Natalie Sabanadze claimed it is now “fully in the hands of the ruling party.”

In defense of the election process, CEC chairman Giorgi Kalandarishvili stated that the vote-counting system had undergone international audits and that only a small number of machines had failed. However, analysts highlighted discrepancies between CEC data and independent observations, particularly in urban areas where the opposition had strong support.

If the contested results hold, Georgian Dream would secure 91 out of 150 parliamentary seats, while opposition parties would collectively account for only 37% of the vote. Georgia’s new proportional representation system made it difficult for many parties to meet the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Despite the ruling party’s claims of success, opposition leaders rejected the notion of a stolen European future. Bokuchava expressed determination to ensure that this moment was not lost, urging her fellow opposition parties to unite in their response. “This is the moment. In future, there may be no such moment,” said voter Levan Benidze, highlighting the election’s historical significance.

Georgia was granted candidate status for EU membership in December, but the process has since stalled due to perceived “democratic backsliding,” including a controversial law targeting organizations receiving foreign funding.

As the Kremlin still exercises influence over parts of Georgia, Georgian Dream’s campaign for a “pragmatic” approach to Russia resonated with some voters. Ivanishvili framed the choice as between a government serving the people’s interests or an opposition acting as “foreign agents.”

Many voters echoed this sentiment, with Georgian Dream supporters emphasizing the need for stability and peace, especially given the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and its occupation of parts of Georgian territory since the 2008 war.

Election observers reported a series of violations, including ballot stuffing and voter intimidation. Just before polls closed, President Salome Zourabichvili urged opposition supporters not to succumb to fear.

Violence marred the election, as illustrated by the experience of Azat Karimov, a local opposition leader who was attacked while investigating allegations of fraud.

In the lead-up to the election, Georgian monitoring groups noted a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at influencing the outcome. The Kremlin has denied any interference, instead accusing the West of attempting to manipulate Georgia’s political landscape. This political climate underscores the ongoing tension between Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and the looming influence of Russia.