CNN Polls: Harris has a narrow edge in Michigan and Wisconsin, while she and Trump remain tied in Pennsylvania

Recent CNN polls reveal that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in two critical battleground states, Michigan and Wisconsin, while the race remains deadlocked in Pennsylvania. These states are pivotal for both candidates as they aim for a favorable outcome in the upcoming election.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters, while in Wisconsin, her support rises to 51% against Trump’s 45%. However, the situation in Pennsylvania is markedly different, with both candidates tied at 48% support, making it the most significant state in the Electoral College race. Notably, all three states swung in Trump’s favor in the 2016 election but were won by President Joe Biden in 2020.

The polls also indicate that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently suspended his independent campaign and endorsed Trump, still appears on the ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Michigan, he garners 3% of the vote, while in Wisconsin, he receives 1%. Overall support for third-party candidates is higher in Michigan, with 6% of likely voters opting for candidates other than Harris or Trump.

Despite the presence of third-party candidates, a majority of likely voters express strong motivations to participate in the election. Among those who are extremely motivated, Harris leads Trump by 51% to 45% in Michigan, 52% to 47% in Wisconsin, and 50% to 47% in Pennsylvania.

These findings mirror previous polling conducted in late summer, where Harris was ahead in Wisconsin by 50% to 44% and in Michigan by 48% to 43%, with a tie in Pennsylvania at 47% each.

The data reveals that voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are significantly more assured in their choices, with only 6% to 8% of likely voters expressing uncertainty about their decisions. Harris’s performance in these states also suggests greater trust among voters regarding her ability to manage key issues like the economy and democracy.

While she faces an uphill battle against Trump regarding economic trust—trailing him by just 4 points in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin—her disadvantage in Pennsylvania is starker, with an 8-point deficit. However, she enjoys a notable advantage on the issue of democracy, leading Trump by 8 points in both Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to a narrower 4-point margin in Pennsylvania.

Perceptions of honesty and trustworthiness also favor Harris among voters in Michigan and Wisconsin. She leads Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan, while the gap narrows to just 7 points in Pennsylvania. Voters in the Midwest states are more likely to view Harris as someone who prioritizes the public’s interests over her own, a sentiment less pronounced among Pennsylvania voters.

Overall, a majority of voters across all three states indicate that leadership traits are more critical than specific issues in their voting decisions. Interestingly, about 40% of Harris’s supporters are voting primarily to oppose Trump rather than to endorse her candidacy, a sentiment that is less prevalent among Trump voters.

Harris’s narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin can be attributed to her performance among White voters and those without college degrees—two demographics that typically lean Republican. In Michigan, the split among White voters is nearly even, while Wisconsin shows a similar trend. However, Trump’s margin among this group is more pronounced in Pennsylvania.

Harris enjoys a wider lead among Black voters in Michigan (83% to 12%) compared to Pennsylvania (76% to 21%). Additionally, she maintains significant advantages among likely voters with college degrees in all three states.

The dynamics in Pennsylvania are more competitive, particularly among urban and rural voters. Harris’s lead among urban voters in Pennsylvania is smaller compared to her margins in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump commands a significant advantage among rural voters in the Keystone State.

As election day approaches, both parties face crucial Senate races in these states. Current polling shows tight contests, with Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading former Rep. Mike Rogers, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen. Bob Casey slightly ahead of Republican Dave McCormick, and Wisconsin’s Senate race too close to call.

Voter participation trends indicate that early voting remains less common in these blue wall states, with only about a third of voters having already cast their ballots. However, those who have voted early show overwhelming support for Harris.

Despite varying levels of confidence in the electoral process, a significant majority of likely voters in these states express optimism about the accuracy of vote counting. Harris supporters exhibit almost universal confidence, contrasting with more mixed feelings among Trump supporters.

Interviews for this polling were conducted between October 23 and October 28, 2024, with registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error for likely voters varies slightly between the states, underscoring the competitiveness of the upcoming election.