Eight takeaways from the 2024 election

Donald Trump has completed a dramatic political comeback, securing the White House in 2024. His victory was fueled more by widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction than by concerns over his divisive rhetoric or legal challenges. In a repeat of his 2016 victory, Trump shattered the so-called “blue wall,” defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania and leading in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. He also triumphed in Sun Belt battlegrounds, including Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, mirroring the electoral map from his first win.

Trump made significant gains with nearly every demographic compared to his 2020 loss, according to exit polls. His apparent ability to replicate his 2016 performance suggested that he paid little political price for his claims of election fraud, his efforts to overturn the 2020 results, or the criminal charges he has faced. As he prepares to take office again, Trump is likely to lead with a Republican Senate majority, which will facilitate his ability to confirm key appointments. The question remains which party will control the House, a crucial element in determining the effectiveness of his presidency.

Trump Undoes the Biden Map

Trump’s path to victory in 2024 closely mirrored that of 2016. His campaign focused on seven key swing states: the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. While there were no surprises in these states, Trump managed to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina early and led in all other battlegrounds, signaling a shift from Biden’s 2020 victory when he won six of the seven. As of now, Trump also holds a narrow lead in the popular vote, and if that holds, he would become the first Republican since George W. Bush to win both the popular vote and the presidency.

The ‘Glass Ceiling’ Remains Intact

Kamala Harris’ defeat marked another setback for many women who had hoped her candidacy would break the “glass ceiling” in American politics. While Harris performed better than Biden among some groups, such as college-educated women, she was unable to sway enough voters overall to secure the presidency. In fact, Harris performed worse than Biden among voters who believed abortion should remain legal, even though Roe v. Wade’s reversal had been a central issue in recent elections. This result indicated that, despite the prominence of abortion rights on the ballot, the issue was not decisive for many voters.

Republicans Take Back the Senate

The GOP regained the Senate majority they lost in 2020, a development with significant implications for Trump’s second term. With a Republican-controlled Senate, Trump’s nominees for key government posts are likely to face less resistance. Democrats, on the other hand, entered the election cycle with a slim Senate majority and an uphill battle to defend seats in deep-red states. Republicans won all three of these contested seats, with Jim Justice defeating Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Tim Sheehy unseating Jon Tester in Montana, and Bernie Moreno winning against Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

House May Provide a Lifeline for Democrats

With the presidency and Senate lost, Democrats may find some solace in the House. While it’s still unclear whether they can maintain control, Democratic victories in New York and California could secure enough seats to put Hakeem Jeffries in the Speaker’s chair. If Democrats retain the House, they could block much of Trump’s agenda, including potential efforts to dismantle key policies such as the CHIPS Act, infrastructure investments, or the Affordable Care Act. Still, with the Senate and presidency under Republican control, it’s clear that much of Trump’s second term could be defined by gridlock.

Rural Voters Prove Crucial

One of the most important factors in Trump’s comeback was his overwhelming support in rural America. Despite Harris’s strong performance in urban areas, including major cities and their suburbs, Trump’s margins in rural counties proved too large for her to overcome. In battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump increased his base in rural areas, while Harris underperformed compared to Biden, especially in suburban counties like Montgomery and Oakland.

Democrats Must Reflect and Reassess

As the results unfolded, it became clear that the Democratic Party would need to engage in significant soul-searching. Many voters, particularly women and minorities, who had been expected to drive Democratic wins were now shifting toward Republicans, reflecting a changing political landscape. Despite a surge of support for Harris in some areas, the party’s messaging on abortion rights and its approach to rural voters seemed to fall short. Democrats will need to examine how to reconnect with these critical constituencies and assess where their campaign strategies went wrong.

Trump Gains Ground with Latino Voters

Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters, particularly men. His campaign’s outreach efforts paid off, as exit polls showed he won Latino men by 8 points, a dramatic turnaround from his 23-point loss in 2020. This gain, especially among Latino men under 65, helped Trump’s overall performance. Additionally, Trump made notable progress with Black male voters, outperforming his 2020 numbers in key states like North Carolina.

Florida and Ohio Solidify Republican Dominance

Florida and Ohio, once key swing states, have now solidified as Republican strongholds. Trump’s double-digit victory in Florida followed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s resounding reelection victory in 2022. The shift in Florida, particularly in Miami-Dade County, marks a dramatic realignment, as what was once a Democratic stronghold has turned in Trump’s favor. Similarly, Ohio, which had been a battleground state for years, is now a reliably red state. The increasing Republican dominance in these states signals a new era in American politics, with these states likely to remain out of reach for Democrats for the foreseeable future.

In sum, Trump’s 2024 comeback reshapes the political landscape, offering a clear mandate to Republicans while forcing Democrats to grapple with their waning influence in crucial states.