Fact Check: Trump’s Claims of Debate Victory Based on Unreliable Polls

Former President Donald Trump has once again invoked a familiar tactic: citing unreliable online polls to assert he won a presidential debate that more reputable surveys indicate he lost. This pattern mirrors his behavior from previous election cycles, where he relied on questionable poll results to claim debate victories.

After his recent debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump took to social media to boast about his performance. On Wednesday afternoon, he proclaimed, “Every Poll has us WINNING, in one case, 92-8, so why would I do a Rematch?” Later, he told reporters, “We won the debate according to every poll — every single poll, I think.”

However, Trump’s assertion does not align with the findings of credible scientific polls. As of Thursday morning, every major poll employing rigorous, scientific methods to gauge public opinion found that Harris was the debate’s victor. In contrast, the polls Trump cited were unscientific, with open access online surveys that do not provide an accurate reflection of U.S. voter sentiment.

Here are the results from three reputable scientific polls conducted by established nonpartisan pollsters:

1. CNN Poll by SSRS: This survey, which included 605 registered voters who watched the debate, revealed that 63% felt Harris performed better, while 37% believed Trump did a better job.
2. YouGov Poll: Conducted with 2,166 registered voters who watched the debate, this poll found that 54% thought Harris won, 31% supported Trump, and 14% were unsure.
3. Leger Poll for the New York Post: Among 1,002 U.S. adults who watched the debate, 50% said Harris won, 29% said Trump won, and 21% either didn’t know or thought neither candidate won.

Even polls from both Democratic and Republican pollsters confirmed Harris’s lead. While scientific polls are not perfect, they offer a more accurate measure of public opinion compared to the unreliable online surveys Trump referenced.

Trump’s claims were largely based on what are often termed “junk polls.” On debate night and in a subsequent Fox News interview, Trump highlighted these unscientific polls. For instance, he mentioned a Newsmax poll showing him leading by an overwhelming margin. Newsmax’s poll was an open web survey, allowing anyone to vote multiple times and even from outside the U.S., rendering its results unreliable.

Additionally, Trump referenced an 80-20 lead in a C-SPAN poll. While C-SPAN is a respected nonpartisan entity, the poll Trump cited was also an open online survey posted on social media, which did not ensure a representative sample of the voting population.

These types of polls are designed to engage specific audience segments rather than accurately measure public opinion. They often attract responses from people who are more inclined to support one candidate or another, and they do not prevent multiple submissions from the same individual or participation by people outside the U.S.

In summary, while Trump has repeatedly used dubious polls to claim debate victories, scientific polls consistently show otherwise. The claims of a decisive win based on unreliable surveys do not reflect the broader and more accurate picture provided by reputable polling organizations.