Kamala Harris just got one of her best polls of the year

Recent polling data brings a glimmer of optimism for Vice President Kamala Harris. The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., shows Donald Trump leading at 47% compared to Harris’s 43%. This margin is within the poll’s error range, making it a close contest in a state Trump has previously won by a significant margin. Notably, this poll was completed before the recent incident involving Trump, which may further influence public opinion.

Although Iowa might not be a decisive state come November, the close race reported by Selzer is noteworthy. It could indicate positive trends for Harris, especially considering the accuracy of Selzer’s past polling.

Selzer & Co. has gained a reputation for reliability in an era where many other pollsters have faced challenges. For example, in the lead-up to the 2020 election, Selzer predicted Trump would have a 7-point lead in Iowa, while other polls showed a more favorable position for Democrat Joe Biden. This early prediction gave Trump supporters hope and Democrats cause for concern. Ultimately, Trump won Iowa by 8 points, exceeding his polling figures, and performed better than expected in Wisconsin and other battleground states.

In 2016, Selzer’s final poll had Trump leading by 7 points in Iowa, a prediction that proved accurate when Trump won the state by 9 points. The accuracy of Selzer’s forecasts raises questions about potential polling errors in 2024. Despite efforts by pollsters to refine their methods since the 2016 and 2020 elections, there remains a possibility of discrepancies.

Selzer’s latest poll results from Iowa suggest that other polls, which show a tightly contested race, may not be underestimating Trump’s support at this stage. This outcome is particularly relevant when examining Wisconsin, a neighboring state with similar demographics, where Harris has recently shown strong performance.

The Marquette University Law School poll from Wisconsin shows Harris leading Trump 52% to 48% among likely voters. Averages of recent polls from Marquette, CBS News/YouGov, and CNN/SSRS also indicate Harris holds a 4-point lead. While this margin is narrow and could easily shift, it stands out compared to other key battleground states, where Harris and Trump are generally closer in polling figures.

Harris’s current 4-point lead in Wisconsin surpasses Joe Biden’s margin of victory in the state in 2020, which was just 0.6 points. The polling error in Wisconsin was evident in 2016 as well, when polls significantly overestimated Hillary Clinton’s support, leading to her unexpected loss in a state that had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

The close race in Iowa, as suggested by the Selzer poll, might be a positive indicator for Harris’s prospects in Wisconsin. Winning Wisconsin would not guarantee overall victory for Harris but would significantly boost her chances. If she secures Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, along with states already leaning in her direction, she would need to win at least two other battleground states to clinch the presidency.

Securing Wisconsin would elevate Harris’s chances of winning to approximately 75%, a significant improvement from a 50/50 race. However, this is still not a certainty, as Trump’s potential victory would be akin to the odds of flipping a coin twice and landing on heads both times.

It’s important to note that the current Selzer poll could be an outlier, and the landscape could change by Election Day. For example, Selzer’s September 2020 poll showed a tie, but its final poll was less favorable for Biden. Nonetheless, the current poll reflects a more favorable position for Harris compared to earlier surveys and suggests a positive trend for her campaign.

In summary, while the Selzer poll provides encouraging news for Kamala Harris, it is crucial to remain cautious as the election approaches. The poll’s favorable results are a positive sign, but much can still change before voters head to the polls.