Obstacles in Gaza Ceasefire Talks Cast Doubts on Achieving Peace Before Biden’s Term Ends

The Biden administration faces significant hurdles in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, casting uncertainty over whether the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict can be resolved before President Joe Biden’s term concludes. Despite extensive efforts by Biden and his senior aides, recent developments have led to skepticism within the White House about the feasibility of securing a deal before the end of his presidency.

Biden and his team have maintained optimism about reaching a resolution, yet recent challenges have dampened this outlook. U.S. officials are growing increasingly doubtful that Hamas, led by Yahya Sinwar, genuinely desires an agreement. The group has been accused of complicating negotiations following the recent execution of six hostages in Gaza, further straining the already tenuous discussions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also contributed to the growing pessimism. This week, he explicitly stated that a deal is not imminent and has advocated for a continued Israeli military presence in southwestern Gaza. This stance contradicts international calls, including from the U.S., for Israel to eventually withdraw entirely from the region.

In Israel, public discontent has surged, with widespread protests against Netanyahu’s government over its failure to secure a deal that would bring home the more than 100 hostages still held, including several Americans.

U.S. officials currently place the bulk of the blame for the deadlock on Hamas. One senior administration official suggested that Hamas may never be genuinely interested in reaching a deal, reflecting concerns expressed privately and publicly about Sinwar’s willingness to advance ceasefire and hostage negotiations.

When questioned about the possibility of increasing pressure on Netanyahu to expedite a deal, another senior official stated, “The president has chosen his approach to getting Netanyahu to agree.” The official also indicated that leveraging U.S. influence over Israel, such as withholding weapons, might not alter the behavior of the Israeli government, which includes far-right elements like Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that both Israel and Hamas must agree on the remaining issues for a deal to be finalized. If a ceasefire is not achieved in the coming months, it would represent a significant foreign policy failure for Biden, who has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital in resolving the conflict. Biden’s commitment to this issue has intensified recently, particularly after he suspended his reelection campaign, allowing him more freedom to engage with regional leaders.

A top Democrat close to the White House described Biden as being “obsessed” with the situation. Recently, Biden has had direct communications with leaders from Egypt and Qatar in efforts to push the deal forward.

The recent revelation that Israel’s military had recovered the bodies of six hostages killed by Hamas has further heightened concerns within the administration about Sinwar’s willingness to engage in ceasefire discussions. This development has intensified the sense of urgency but also raised doubts about Hamas’s readiness to reach an agreement.

In addition to skepticism about Hamas, doubts are also growing regarding Netanyahu’s commitment to a deal that could potentially weaken his political position. Netanyahu has recently argued for a long-term Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, a stance that conflicts with the proposed ceasefire agreement, which includes an initial withdrawal of Israeli forces and a complete withdrawal in subsequent phases.

The U.S. administration’s strategy to address these challenges has involved keeping specific negotiation details confidential to avoid complicating the process. Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, believed to be orchestrated by Israel, Biden’s team expressed concerns that this event might derail the ceasefire efforts. Haniyeh was a key negotiator, and his death has raised questions about the potential impact on the ongoing talks.

Despite these obstacles, Biden remains hopeful. When asked about the prospects of the deal being finalized, he responded, “Hope springs eternal,” reflecting his continued optimism despite the arduous negotiation process.

In summary, the road to a ceasefire agreement remains fraught with challenges, both from within Hamas and from Israeli political dynamics. As the Biden administration works to navigate these complexities, the possibility of reaching a resolution before the end of his term remains uncertain.