Republican Tim Sheehy will defeat Sen. Jon Tester in competitive Montana race, CNN projects

Republican Tim Sheehy has defeated three-term Montana Senator Jon Tester, according to CNN projections, giving Republicans another seat and helping them solidify their newly won Senate majority. Montana, a historically red state, has seen every statewide office held by Republicans in recent years. Despite this, Tester had managed to buck the trend with victories in 2006, 2012, and 2018, thanks to his moderate approach and his down-to-earth image as a dirt farmer with seven fingers.

However, this election cycle presented a unique challenge for Tester. His seat, along with Democratic-held Senate seats in Ohio and West Virginia, became a prime target for Republicans. Both of those races were also won by GOP candidates Bernie Moreno and Jim Justice. For the first time, Tester had to share a ballot with Donald Trump, who won Montana by significant margins in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In 2020, Trump defeated Joe Biden by a 16-point margin, making Tester’s path to victory even more difficult. To remain competitive, Tester would have had to outperform the top of the ticket by double digits, which proved to be a difficult task in a state that had trended more conservative.

Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL who moved to Montana in 2014, was portrayed by Democrats as an outsider and a wealthy, out-of-state candidate with dubious ranching credentials. This line of attack echoed the strategy used against Republican Matt Rosendale in 2018, when Democrats tried to paint him as disconnected from the state. However, Republicans argued that attacks about Sheehy’s outsider status would have limited effectiveness in a state that has seen a surge in newcomers, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the election moved into its final weeks, Democrats escalated their attacks, focusing on Sheehy’s past military service. The controversy centered on conflicting accounts he had given years ago about how he sustained a bullet wound in his arm. Ads aired by outside groups questioned Sheehy’s version of events, with one featuring a park ranger who claimed Sheehy had told him that his gun accidentally discharged in Glacier National Park, and another from a retired Navy SEAL who served with Sheehy. The SEAL disputed Sheehy’s account, asserting that the candidate had not received the injury in Afghanistan and accusing him of dishonoring his military service.

Meanwhile, Republicans sought to tie Tester to President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s leadership in Congress. Tester, who did not attend the Democratic National Convention or endorse Biden during the presidential race, was still seen by Republicans as a staunch ally of the party’s more liberal wing. The GOP hoped to paint Tester as out of touch with Montana’s conservative values, portraying him as complicit in the policies of the Biden administration.

An additional wild card in the race was a controversial state ballot measure aimed at enshrining the right to an abortion in Montana’s constitution. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion-related ballot measures have become a key issue in red states, often benefiting Democrats. In Montana, Republicans had passed a series of abortion restrictions in recent years, but many of these laws had been struck down by state courts as unconstitutional. The abortion measure provided Democrats with an opportunity to galvanize voters, particularly women, who were motivated by the issue.

Ultimately, the race came down to a combination of factors: the national political climate, Sheehy’s outsider status, and Tester’s struggle to overcome the weight of national party affiliation. Sheehy’s victory further bolstered the Republican push to take control of the Senate, despite the challenges posed by Montana’s historically moderate electorate.

As Sheehy prepares to take office, Tester’s loss marks the end of his tenure in the Senate, but his career, marked by his ability to win in a deeply red state, remains a testament to the possibility of Democratic success in unlikely places. Sheehy’s win represents a key victory for Republicans as they work to solidify their majority in Washington, but it also underscores the challenges Democrats face in a state that has increasingly shifted to the right. The election results signal that, in states like Montana, national politics and local issues are often deeply intertwined, with national figures like Trump playing a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of local races.