Trump’s victory could mean US withdraws support for Ukraine in war with Russia

With Donald Trump securing reelection, Ukraine faces the potential for a significant shift in its relationship with the United States, particularly regarding continued military and financial support in its ongoing war with Russia. Throughout his campaign, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have raised concerns about the long-term commitment of the U.S. to Ukraine, particularly as the war enters its third year with no end in sight.

Trump’s comments suggest that a reelection could lead to a drastic reduction in U.S. support for Kyiv, a scenario that could have far-reaching consequences for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian advances. This comes at a time when Russia has been making steady progress in the Donbas region, a key target for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who aims to fully capture it. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently described the situation on the front lines as “difficult,” noting that Ukrainian forces require continuous replenishment of resources to maintain their defense.

Adding to Ukraine’s challenges, there are reports that Russia is bolstering its forces with the assistance of North Korean troops. Up to 10,000 North Korean soldiers are reportedly stationed in Russia’s Kursk region, with the potential to enter combat against Ukrainian forces in the near future.

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has provided tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, including weapons and budgetary assistance, with plans to continue that support as much as possible before Trump takes office. However, Trump’s stance on Ukraine has been notably different from Biden’s. Trump has repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and has openly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a figure with whom he shares a complex relationship. Notably, Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 centered on his attempt to leverage U.S. military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure Zelensky into investigating his political rivals.

Despite these tensions, Zelensky congratulated Trump after the election, expressing appreciation for Trump’s emphasis on “peace through strength.” In a social media post, Zelensky said, “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.” He added that Ukraine remains hopeful for continued bipartisan support from the U.S., emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation between the two nations.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the war between Ukraine and Russia would never have occurred had he still been in office. He has also suggested that, if reelected, he could end the war in a short period of time. In a July campaign speech, Trump stated that he could settle the conflict in just one day. However, during his September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump declined to commit to Ukraine’s victory over Russia. He also suggested that Ukraine might have been better off accepting a “bad deal” with Russia to end the war, stating that “any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now.”

Following those comments, Trump met with Zelensky in New York City, where he reiterated his intention to negotiate a settlement that would be favorable for both sides. Trump emphasized his strong relationships with both Zelensky and Putin, stating, “I think if we win, we’re going to get it resolved very quickly.”

For his part, Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine is not opposed to negotiations, but insists that they must come from “a position of strength.” In late October, he stated that “Trump talks a lot, but I didn’t hear him say he would reduce support for Ukraine.” Still, Zelensky acknowledged the uncertainty that a change in U.S. leadership brings, noting that “the next U.S. president may strengthen or weaken support for Ukraine.”

If U.S. support weakens, Zelensky warned, Russia could make further territorial gains, potentially derailing Ukraine’s efforts to win the war. He stressed that the outcome of the conflict hinges on continued U.S. commitment, particularly regarding diplomatic efforts to end the war swiftly. Without that support, Ukraine’s chances of regaining control over its territory could be severely compromised.

In anticipation of potential changes in U.S. policy, NATO has worked to “Trump-proof” support for Ukraine. Earlier this year, NATO announced the creation of a new mission aimed at coordinating military equipment and training for Ukrainian forces, much of which is funded by the U.S. Additionally, the Biden administration contributed $20 billion to a $50 billion loan package for Ukraine from the G7, which is also supported by frozen Russian assets.

As Ukraine continues to face mounting challenges on the battlefield, the question of U.S. support remains crucial. Whether under Biden or Trump, the outcome of the war may well depend on the level of assistance Ukraine receives from its allies in the West.

About The Author

Ama Oprah

See author's posts