What is the ‘red mirage’ or the ‘blue shift’ and will it happen this year?

In recent years, elections in the U.S. have witnessed what is commonly referred to as the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” These terms describe a phenomenon where an early apparent lead by one political party, typically Republicans, vanishes as mail-in ballots are counted later, favoring the other party, often Democrats. This shift is not new, but it has gained heightened attention due to misinformation about election integrity, particularly claims by former President Donald Trump regarding fraudulent voting.

What Is the “Red Mirage” and the “Blue Shift”?

The “red mirage” and “blue shift” are terms that refer to the pattern observed in U.S. elections, particularly since the rise in absentee and mail-in voting. The “red mirage” happens when early election night results show a strong Republican lead, primarily because these votes are typically cast in person on Election Day, and those results are processed first. However, as mail-in ballots are counted later, the results begin to shift toward Democratic candidates. This trend is sometimes referred to as the “blue shift,” as these late-arriving votes often favor Democrats, who have been more likely to vote by mail in recent years.

What Happened in 2020?

The 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden saw the most dramatic examples of both the red mirage and blue shift. On Election Night, many states, including key battlegrounds like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, reported strong leads for Trump as in-person votes were counted first. However, as mail-in ballots — which leaned more heavily toward Biden — were processed in the days following Election Day, Biden’s numbers began to catch up, and eventually, he was declared the winner.

In Georgia, for example, Trump was leading initially, but as mail-in ballots were counted, Biden’s lead grew, leading to the ultimate projection of a Biden victory. This was widely referred to as the “blue shift” in 2020, as the voting results continued to evolve after the polls closed.

This phenomenon was particularly pronounced in 2020 due to the massive increase in mail-in voting driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed that counties won by Biden tended to count votes more slowly than those won by Trump, largely due to the complex process of counting mail-in ballots.

While the blue shift was not enough to change the outcome of the election in 2020, it was significant enough to cause confusion and contribute to the false narrative pushed by Trump and some of his supporters about a rigged election.

What to Expect in 2024

As the 2024 election approaches, many states have adjusted their election laws and procedures to improve the speed and transparency of vote counting, but the potential for a red mirage or blue shift still exists.

In Georgia, for instance, a new law aims to speed up the process by encouraging more voters to cast their ballots early in person rather than by mail. As Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger explained, he expects that 70% to 75% of ballots will be reported by 8 p.m. on Election Night, which should reduce the chances of prolonged delays in counting. However, if the race is close, it could still take several days to finalize the outcome.

States like North Carolina, where mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day, are expected to have quicker counts, while other states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where ballots can’t be processed until after the polls close, might experience delays. Despite these challenges, some states may have learned from the chaotic 2020 election and improved their systems to ensure quicker results this time.

In Michigan, where pre-processing of mail-in ballots is allowed, election officials hope to have results by the end of the day on November 6, the day after the election. However, close races could still take several days to determine.

Will It Take Longer to Count Votes?

While election officials across the U.S. are preparing for a smooth counting process, close elections could still take time. The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore is a reminder of how a contested election can drag on. That election, which came down to a razor-thin margin in Florida, led to a recount that lasted 36 days and ended with a U.S. Supreme Court decision that ultimately handed the presidency to Bush.

In states like Pennsylvania, where the outcome could be close, officials have urged the public to be patient. Republican Al Schmidt, Pennsylvania’s top elections official, stressed that while there may be delays, the system is secure and accurate. The key, Schmidt emphasized, is that every vote is counted, regardless of how long it takes.

Conclusion

The red mirage and blue shift are phenomena that will likely continue in 2024, particularly with the rise of mail-in voting and varying state laws on how ballots are processed. While some states have improved their election infrastructure and processing timelines since 2020, close races will still require time to resolve. Voters should be prepared for a potential delay in the final results, especially in battleground states, and be cautious of misinformation that seeks to undermine trust in the election process. Ultimately, while it may take time to count every vote, the integrity of the election remains paramount, and patience will be necessary for those waiting for the final results.