Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: The greatest divisional playoff matchup ever
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The NFL’s divisional playoff matchup between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is shaping up to be one of the greatest in history. The Buffalo Bills, led by Allen, will face Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens in a high-stakes game that pits two of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the league against each other. Both quarterbacks have been in the MVP race for most of the season, and their meeting in the divisional round could become a historic event.
This matchup is being hailed as one of the best quarterback matchups in divisional playoff history, spanning 229 games in the Super Bowl era. While football can be unpredictable and no single stat defines greatness, the numbers behind Allen and Jackson demonstrate their exceptional skills.
A key stat to consider is adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), which factors in a quarterback’s yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks to give a clearer picture of their efficiency. Jackson leads the NFL with an impressive 9.4 ANY/A, while Allen ranks third with 8.0. Though Allen threw for fewer yards and touchdowns than Jackson, he took fewer sacks, and Jackson threw two fewer interceptions, with both quarterbacks performing well below the league average in that category.
Looking back at divisional playoff games in NFL history, there have been only two games where both starting quarterbacks had at least 8.0 adjusted net yards per pass attempt during the regular season: the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers and the 2019 AFC divisional playoff between Jackson’s Ravens and the Tennessee Titans. This makes the Allen-Jackson matchup one of the rarest and most intriguing quarterback duels in the playoff’s history.
What sets both Allen and Jackson apart from other quarterbacks is their ability to run the ball with authority. Allen, who plays like a bruising fullback, excels at picking up first downs and scoring touchdowns with his legs. Jackson, on the other hand, is a true running threat, leading the league in rushing yards. Both quarterbacks have accumulated over 500 rushing yards and at least four rushing touchdowns this season. Allen is second in rushing touchdowns, while Jackson leads the league in rushing yards.
Historically, there have only been three divisional playoff games where both starting quarterbacks rushed for at least 500 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season. These games include the 2013 NFC divisional playoff between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Panthers and Seattle Seahawks, and the 2022 NFC divisional playoff between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The game between Allen and Jackson marks the first time that both starting quarterbacks in an AFC divisional playoff game have accomplished this feat, further adding to the historical significance of the matchup.
When combining both passing and rushing stats for a comprehensive look at quarterback performance, we can use Pro-Football Reference’s approximate value (AV) metric, which combines various aspects of a player’s contribution to their team. Allen’s AV this season is 20, while Jackson’s is slightly higher at 21. Both scores are elite, making them the best two quarterbacks in the league by this metric. This is the first time in divisional playoff history that both starting quarterbacks have achieved an AV of at least 20, reinforcing the importance and excitement surrounding this game.
Although there are other metrics, such as ESPN’s QBR and expected points added (EPA), that also combine passing and rushing stats, Allen and Jackson stand out in these areas as well. ESPN’s QBR has Allen slightly ahead of Jackson, while EPA above replacement suggests that the 2013 divisional playoff game between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers had a slightly better combined quarterback performance. Nevertheless, when comparing these stats, it’s clear that the Allen-Jackson matchup is historic in its own right.
According to analyst Neil Paine, this game is the best divisional playoff matchup in the last 50 years, considering the strength of the teams and their regular-season schedules. For Bills fans, this game is not just a playoff clash, but a moment that could define their franchise’s future. As a Bills fan myself, I’m hoping this will be a historically good game for Buffalo—though if things don’t go our way, don’t expect me to show up to work on Monday!
This divisional playoff game between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is set to be a thrilling spectacle, and regardless of the outcome, it will be remembered as one of the most exciting quarterback matchups in NFL history.
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